On 7th Pay Commission implementation, private investment, Air India and more, here’s what govt is mulling over
Besides the government staff, economic analysts are keenly awaiting
when and how the Centre will implement 7th Pay Commission award, which
has implications for government finances (with estimated outgo of Rs
74,000 crore in FY16) as well as on inflation.
Also, with private investments yet to show decisive signs of picking
up, the government has the difficult task of keeping the tempo in public
spending, especially capital investments, at a time it is losing the
benefits of low crude oil prices.
Finance secretary Ashok Lavasa speaks on these issues in an interview to FE’s Prasanta Sahu. Excerpts.
GDP growth in FY16 was put by the Central Statistics Office
at 7.6%, with the growth in the last quarter coming in at 7.9%. Private
consumption has been the growth driver. Despite the efforts by the
government, private investors are yet to shed their diffidence. Among
infrastructure sectors, highways, railways etc. have seen a turnaround
but mainly because of government investment. How far is this model
sustainable given the Centre’s (limited) fiscal capacity?
Many infrastructure projects, in which private sector has been
involved, have started moving. In highway sector, for example, the
hybrid annuity model has started attracting investors. As we go forward,
we feel that the initiatives that have been taken by the government –
to improve the ease of doing business and integrate various clearances –
would give a push to private-sector investments. In infrastructure
sectors, where the government plays a key role in awarding contracts
etc, we are seeing positive results too. If all the factors are
favourable, the GDP growth could be close to 8% this year.
The questions about GDP data refuse to wither away.
Manufacturing GDP growth and the IIP (industrial production) data aren’t
quite compatible, even if one considers the fact that apart from
output, value addition is now being captured more efficiently.
The Q4 results of some of the major companies show that their EBITDA
has increased. The variation between manufacturing growth (9.3% in FY16)
and IIP (2.4%) was mainly due to the fact that some sectors did well
while some did not.
How important are lower interest rates in reviving demand?
I think it’s a question of giving a boost to demand. Sometimes people
may have more expectation than what RBI could do (in terms of lowering
rates). The RBI has had to consider various factors and take a
considered view. It is not possible to please all people all times. It
is fair to expect that whatever lowering (of rates) has been done by
RBI, finds an expression in the retail lending rates. I think the
governor is right in saying full transmission has not happened of the
central bank’s (cumulative 150 bps) rate cut since January 2015.
What will be the guiding framework of the “prospective planning” that will replace five-year Plan?
We could divide it into three parts: the period till which one can
have some predictability on availability of resources, that will be,
say, a three-year action plan. Beyond this, there will be medium-term
(seven-year) Plan. Besides, there can be a prospective plan for theb
period till 2030. In the prospective plan, what you already have is
sustainable development goals, which are part of the international
commitments. Niti Aayog will look at integration of issues and
prospective planning while department of expenditure will make the fund
allocations for various programmes.
Will substantial additional provision be needed to meet the Pay Panel-related outgo in FY17?
It will be too early and premature to say whether budgetary provision
is not adequate or not. No one knows to what extent the government will
accept the Pay Commission’s report. But, there is a provision in the
budget to take care of the impact of the pay commission award (According
to sources, FY17 budget has provision of about Rs 54,000 crore for
honouring the pay panel’s award, but Lavasa refused to comment on this
).
Will Niti Aayog’s reported suggestions on strategic
disinvestments in a clutch of PSUs including Air India be taken forward
this year?
We haven’t so far received the recommendations you are referring to.
We have to explore all forms of divestment and strategic sale is of
course one of them. The Department of Investment and Public Asset
Management will be looking at all possibilities and deciding on which
unit to be put on privatisation or disinvestment or strategic sale mode.
Is there any move to monetise surplus land with defence, railways and ports bodies?
This is not to be done as a central government policy. The railways
have been trying to monetise land. Certainly, this is one source of
revenue, but it may be not a very significant source. Whenever an entity
decides to take up any piece of land for monetisation, it has to
consider all the legal issues, physical condition, its own plans of
utilising and ultimately, if there is a market for that (in case of
sale/leasing out).
Source:
FE